Chart: Medicare Insolvency Projections 1980 to 2013

Every year we find out the long-term insolvency projection from the Medicare Trustees, and every year we hear calls from Republicans for major changes and cuts to Medicare in response. So this week we find out that the insolvency projection has been expanded by 2 years to 2026. That’s 13 years until insolvency. That sounds bad right? Well it’s not. The historic average Medicare insolvency projection since 1980 is over 12 years. It’s been as low as 4 years and as high as 28 years during that span. So with the latest report from the Medicare Trustees, we find out the sky is not falling because the program’s insolvency projection is sitting right at it’s 30-year average.

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It ‘Only’ Takes Political Will To Make Sure Medicare And Social Security Survive

There is no question Medicare needs fixing. The biggest problem with Medicare is that it is a high-risk pool. Insurance will be expensive per person when the only people in the insurance risk pool are 65 and older or disabled. That makes it fairly remarkable that Medicare has managed to survive for as long as it has. The reason it has survived is because of a vast supply of political will and public support. But sooner or later we are going to have to address the root issue, high risk. All insurance works by having diversified risk whether it’s car insurance or health insurance. Therefore, diversifying the risk pool when it comes to Medicare means extending it to all Americans, or ‘Medicare for all’. Having one insurance payer makes the financing of health care simpler and more efficient. Removing profits from the financing side of health care means nobody is deciding what is and isn’t covered based on shareholder sentiment and CEO bonuses. Removing profits means less overhead, hence less costly health care. Fixing health care in this country means extending the same coverage your grandparents have to all Americans.

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