September 9, 2012 by David K. Sutton
Obama Sees Modest Post-Convention Bounce, Chance of Winning Near 80 Percent
President Obama is seeing a modest bump in initial polls since the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention. Both his approval rating and lead over Mitt Romney have increased. This is after Romney saw a modest bump after the RNC.
A weekend Gallup poll shows Obama, who took pulling ahead of GOP contender Mitt Romney by four percentage points. For weeks, most polls have shown Obama and Romney in a dead heat. His job approval number now stands at 52 percent, a nine-point jump since late August.
Pre-convention, Obama’s approval-to-disapproval rating stood at 45 percent to 48 percent. It has now swung 13 points during and in the aftermath of the convention. The last time Obama was at 52 percent was during the three-day period of May 23-25, 2011. – Gallup Poll: Obama Gets Post-Convention Election Lift
Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight Blog now puts Obama’s chances of winning the election at nearly 80 percent (79.8%). This is a 6.7 point jump since September 1, the Saturday before the DNC. Nate also sees reason to believe that Obama’s post-convention bump has not yet subsided:
The gains that Mr. Obama has made in these tracking polls over the past 48 hours already appear to match or exceed the ones that Mr. Romney made after his convention. The odds, however, are that Mr. Obama has some further room to grow.
The reason is that the tracking polls are not turned around instantaneously. The Gallup poll, for instance, now consists of interviews conducted between Saturday, Sept. 1, and Friday, Sept. 7. That means that many of the interviews in the poll still predate the effective start of the Democratic convention on Tuesday night. – Sept. 8: Conventions May Put Obama in Front-Runner’s Position