August 19, 2013 by David K. Sutton
It Takes 270: Do Conservatives Understand The Republican Electoral Math Challenge?
I know conservatives want to stick to their convictions and show America what they are made of, but do they understand the odds they face in 2016? To say it bluntly, Republicans are electorally challenged. They have a serious math problem on their hands. In 2016, Democrats start out with easily eight or nine-tenths of the electoral college votes required (270) to win the presidential election. This is before a single American casts a ballot. Why? I’ll let a conservative explain it. A conservative who does understand this incredible hurdle that Republicans face in 2016 and beyond.
Myra Adams (The Daily Beast) — As Republicans gear up to “take back the White House” conservatives need to be aware of one startling fact: in 2012 if Romney had won the three swing states of Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, he still would have lost the election. —
After totaling the electoral votes in all the terminally blue states, an inconvenient math emerges [in 2016], providing even a below average Democrat presidential candidate a potential starting advantage of 246. —
Let me repeat, if only for the shock value: 246 votes out of 270 is 91 percent. That means the Democrat candidate needs to win only 24 more votes out of the remaining 292. (There are a total of 538 electoral votes.)
That’s one hell of a daunting challenge for the next Republican presidential candidate. Gone are the days of Republicans owning the electoral college map, like President Reagan did in 1984 (winning all but one state and Washington D.C.).
Times have changed. The demographics have shifted. The next Republican candidate will likely be ultra-conservative. If that prediction comes true, Republicans can kiss 2016 (and 2020) goodbye.
Because moderate Republicans (so far) lack the spine to stand up to extreme right-wing ideologues, they have allowed these radicals to seize control of the GOP and it’s future. As long as this remains true, Republicans will continue to experience electoral math challenges for many presidential elections to come.